Spider-Man 2 is out this week on the PS5. Ahead of its launch I've been fortunate to finish Insomniac Games' latest Sony exclusive on the PS5, and discussed my thoughts as a guest on The Untitled Gadgets Podcast this week.
In addition to this, I've also spent some quality time analysing how the game will sell, courtesy conversations with my sources in distribution and retail.
So how would Spider-Man 2 sell in India? For reference, Spider-Man 2018 sold over 100,000 units over its lifespan in part thanks to the franchise's ongoing appeal combined with fair pricing after it hit the PlayStation Hits label.
At the time Sony had about 350,000 PS4s. Now the PS5 has an install base of around 300,000 units. These figures are both grey and official sales combined. By the end of the year, we should have about 350,000 PS5s in India. In line with Sony’s own internal sales estimates for the country. This will be driven by the frequent bundles and discounting the company has undertaken since August of this year.
With no mid-tier steelbook variant like we saw with Horizon Forbidden West or Gran Turismo 7 and the Collector’s Edition being in low triple digits, it’s safe to say that a bulk of the sales for Spider-Man 2 will be driven by retail standard edition purchases.
If you factor in at least a 25 percent increase in sales given the hype surrounding it, positive reviews, and a general increase in marketing around it, we should see around 30,000 units sold in the first month itself — roughly 10 percent of the PS5 install base at launch to start with.
For perspective, Spider-Man 2018 on the PS4 sold 50,000 units in the first three months. Considering Spider-Man’s mass appeal and Sony’s aggressive PS5 pricing, I won’t be surprised to see one in every five PS5 owner pick up the game eventually. Much like God of War Ragnarok.
Retailers are prepping for a windfall. At the moment midnight launches for the game are planned for Mumbai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Lukcnow to name a few. Considering Sony has kept its supply chain hyped with a steady stream of publicity — including branding metros across the country with Spider-Man 2 — it seems to have worked.
It's rare for stores willing to stay open for a game release these days, and hopefully a sign of things to come. More so with a PS5 Spider-Man 2 bundle slated soon after the game’s release date.
That said, Sony could be doing more for the game particularly after how poorly Indian customers were treated. Spider-Man PS4 pre-order bonuses were cancelled as well as the Limited Edition PS4 Slim and Special Edition version of the game complete with zero official communication from the company. And for now, the inaction hasn’t helped.
In terms of sheer pre-orders, Assassin’s Creed Mirage remains the number one AAA game pre-ordered in India this year thus far eclipsing both Valhalla and Origins as well as Spider-Man 2. This may change in the run up to that game’s October 20 release date and a slew of positive reviews. I suspect Mirage’s success has to do with its Rs. 3,499 price along with Ubisoft’s sharp messaging about the franchise’s return to roots. For context, the previous two entries sold about 8,000 to 10,000 units in their first month.
Other interesting insights from the Indian games market
As for Spider-Man 2 PS5 faceplates, retail hasn’t been informed of their arrival. Given how close we are to launch, it’s safe to say that this item will skip India altogether. There was chatter of potential exclusivity to online stores but that hasn’t panned out either, while others that have Sony’s stamp of approval have resorted to listing pirated versions.
Microsoft has lowered the price of the Xbox Series X during the Amazon Great Indian Festival from Rs. 55,990 to around Rs. 48,499. End result: strong demand and sell through in the hundreds. A rare occurence for a console that usually moves under 50 units a month.
Demand for Hogwarts Legacy continues to be strong in the run up to the Nintendo Switch release. However its distributor E-xpress may have dropped the ball much like it did with Elden Ring. Most stores barely had enough units to sell within launch week itself.
And speaking of poor decisions, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 may not make it here officially due to high pricing and more importantly, a potential PS5 bundle that has deterred would be official imports from coming in. The efficient grey market should bring it on release all the same.